Global Arab Network | Election in Lebanon - a very tight race

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Election in Lebanon - a very tight race

Lebanon will go to the polls today in a national election that is expected to be a very tight race with no single party securing a comfortable victory. The most likely outcome would be a national unity government, similar to the current one, experts say.
Campaigning was officially over on Saturday, a day before Lebanese voters go to the polls.
More than 50,000 soldiers and police have been deployed country-wide to deal with any outbreaks of violence and European monitors will observe the vote.
Election_in_Lebanon_-_a_very_tight_race

"I am confident everything will proceed smoothly," Interior Minister Ziad Baroud told AFP.

Campaigning has for the most part been free of the sectarian unrest that have plagued Lebanon for years, but there are fears the situation could escalate once the results are known.

"Given the animosity between the two sides, thank God it has been quiet overall," a high-ranking security official said. "But we are bracing for after the vote because one side is bound to be unhappy," he added.

"Whatever majority might be gained by either side in Lebanon's June 7 elections will be very slim," said Paul Salem, head of the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Centre.

"The country will remain almost evenly divided between the two camps, with major communities that make up the Lebanese polity lined up on either side of the political divide."

The election will largely by fought between the Hezbollah-dominated "March 8" alliance and the ruling Western-backed "March 14" coalition.

Analysts believe Hezbollah has a good chance of gaining a parliamentary majority for the first time.
A win for Hezbollah, which the US has listed as a so-called "terrorist" organisation, and its Maronite Christian allies from the Free Patriotic Movement, could precipitate a tilt towards Syria.

But most analysts predict the outcome is likely to be a national unity government - albeit one in which Hezbollah has a strong hand - with little change likely in government policy.

The Christian vote - divided between the two camps - looks set to tip the scale, with a handful of key battleground constituencies likely to be crucial in determining the elections outcome.

Speaking to supporters ahead of the midnight deadline to end campaigning, Saad al-Hariri, the leader of the March 14 coalition, said the vote would decide the future of Lebanon.

"All what we wish for is that that our opponents would recognise the result of the election," he said at a rally of his Future movement in Beirut on Friday.

Lebanon has witnessed a period of calm in the run-up to the election, but sectarian tension brought Lebanon to the brink of civil war last year.

More than 100 people were killed in violence before an agreement led to the election of Michel Sleiman, then the army chief, as president and the formation of a national unity government.

Lebanon's complex power-sharing system divides the 128 seats in parliament equally between Christians and Muslims.
Political unrest last year also saw a six-month vacancy in the presidency and sectarian clashes that killed more than 100 people after Hezbollah staged a spectacular takeover of mainly Sunni parts of Beirut.

LEBANON ELECTIONS KEY FACTS (BBC)
- 128-seat parliament. Seats divided along sectarian and communal lines - 64 for Muslims and 64 for Christians
- MPs elected for four-year terms in 26 multi-seat constituencies
- Voting age 21 years
- Main factions: 14 March Coalition: Future movement, Progressive Socialist Party, Christian Lebanese Forces, Christian Phalangist party. 8 March Coalition: Hezbollah, Amal movement headed by the current parliamentary speaker, Nabih Birri. Free Patriotic Movement of Gen Michel Aoun
(Reuters, BBC, AFP, Aljazeera)

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