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Abyei - The boundaries of Sudan’s oil rich region are due to be set

Global Arab Network - - Adam Turner

Tuesday, 21 July 2009 18:22

SUDAN_-_Abyei_-_The_boundaries_of_Sudans_oil_rich_region_are_due_to_be_set

The boundaries of Sudan’s oil rich Abyei region are finally due to be set on 22 July when experts in The Hague rule on a dispute that has threatened the country’s 2005 peace accord.

The Abyei Arbitral Tribunal, sitting at the Permanent Court of Arbitration, will determine whether or not the northern government was correct in claiming that a previous panel, the Abyei Boundaries Commission, exceeded its mandate in its 2005 ruling. The commission had found that Abyei was much larger than Khartoum claimed and that the area included productive oil fields. Under its boundaries, Khartoum will lose the oil revenue if Abyei votes to join Southern Sudan in a 2011 referendum.

In the run-up to the new ruling, leaders from both north and south Sudan have sought to quell fears that the decision will spark fresh conflict between communities in Abyei or even reignite the civil war.

Both sides have vowed to abide by the tribunal’s ruling.

"We have committed ourselves to the arbitration and we are going to accept the ruling,” said Ghazi Salahaldin from President Omar al-Bashir's northern National Congress Party.

"We have agreed some security measures to be taken in order to prevent any confrontations in the region,” he added.

Binding decision

"The award will be binding for both parties," said Malik Agar, who heads the delegation from the south’s ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM).

"The decision, of course, will not be without disappointment to either party," Agar added. "We expect some violence may be there, but the two parties are prepared."

In May 2008, clashes between troops from Northern and Southern Sudan displaced thousands of people from their homes. Many have yet to return.

Senior officials from both sides have travelled to Abyei “to explain the ruling to the people”, according to Agar.

The public commitment to accept the ruling peacefully has been welcomed by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who stressed in a 14 July report to the Security Council that the situation in Abyei “remains volatile and requires constant attention”.

"The past has shown that disputes over the status of Abyei and conflicts between local communities have the potential to create instability that could spiral into a major escalation and threaten the Comprehensive Peace Agreement itself,” Ban warned.

Build-up of forces

Ashraf Qazi, Ban’s special representative in Sudan, warned on 18 July that SPLM forces were in the Abyei area. In a statement he underlined that only joint/integrated units comprising soldiers and police from both north and south were authorised to be in Abyei.

But he said there were "several reports and confirmations" that Southern police and military units from the former rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) were in the Agok region south of Abyei, in breach of previous deals.

"This is a clear violation of the Abyei Roadmap Agreement and could lead to [an] escalation [of] violence if ... unchecked," he said.

A spokesman for the SPLA, Major General Kuol Diem Kuol, denied the reports and countered that northern forces were gathering in Diffra, some 50km north of Abyei.

Keeping the peace

Ban also stressed that concrete steps had to be taken to ensure peace after the ruling.

"Crucially, the Abyei area needs a fully funded and functional civilian administration irrespective of the result of the arbitration,” Ban said.

Enough, a Washington DC advocacy group, urged in a 20 July statement: “Sustained attention, including negotiations between the parties on long-term wealth-sharing arrangements related to Abyei’s oil reserves, are the only way to mitigate the risk that Abyei will unravel the North-South peace.”

In 2011, Abyei is scheduled hold a referendum on whether its people join north or south Sudan. At the same time, Southern Sudan will vote on whether to fully secede and form an independent state.

Abyei briefing

Legal experts in The Hague make a binding decision on 22 July setting the boundaries of Sudan’s oil- and pasture-rich Abyei region – ruling on a dispute that has threatened the country’s fragile peace accord. The following briefing examines the background to the Abyei Arbitral Tribunal’s decision.

What is Abyei?

An oil-rich area straddling the border between north and south Sudan, jutting into the states of Western Kordofan and Northern Bahr al-Gazal. Since 2005 it should have been administered jointly by the ruling parties of Northern and Southern Sudan. During the 1983-2005 civil war both sides used local communities as proxy forces.

What is the Abyei Protocol?

A chapter of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA) (www.sudan archi ve.net), which provides for a referendum in 2011 when Abyei will decide whether to join the north or the south, and for a joint administration until then. The protocol outlines how the region’s oil revenue is shared between the Northern Government of National Unity (GNU) and the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) and enshrines the grazing rights of Misseriya pastoralists who live to the north of Abyei. It also tasked an Abyei Boundaries Commission to “define and demarcate” the area, whose borders are disputed by north and south.

Chapter IV of the CPA states that the people who live in Abyei permanently are of the Ngok section of the Dinka ethnic group. Arab communities, including the Misseriya, traditionally move through the area at certain seasons with their livestock for pasture, water and trade, meaning that the two communities regularly interact – and have clashed in the past.

What is the role of the Permanent Court of Arbitration?

The commission’s “final and binding” ruling, issued in July 2005, determined that Abyei was much larger than the northern government claimed. Abyei’s size matters because it affects how much oil is apportioned to the area and because in a referendum scheduled for 2011, Abyei’s residents are likely to vote to join Southern Sudan’s administration. The GNU rejected the ruling by insisting the commission had exceeded its mandate.

Both sides agreed that an Abyei Arbitration Tribunal, sitting at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, should decide whether this assertion was valid and by extension whether the commission’s boundaries remained in force. They further agreed that if the court found the commission had exceeded its mandate, the court should make a fresh ruling on Abyei’s boundaries based on submissions by both parties.

Why is it so important to resolve the dispute?

The 1972 Addis Ababa peace agreement, which ended the first civil war (1956-1972), also included provisions for a referendum among the Abyei Ngok Dinka on whether or not to join what was then a semi-autonomous Southern Region. Failure to implement those provisions was a factor in the re-ignition of civil war in the early 1980s.

It has remained a hotbed of tension since the CPA was signed: in May 2008 clashes displaced tens of thousands of people in Abyei and the town was set on fire. Failure to properly implement the Abyei Protocol is likely to exacerbate not only conflict between local communities but also the increasingly strained relations between Khartoum and GOSS.

Abyei lies at the faultline of Sudan. It encapsulates the cultural and livelihoods divide of the country, but at its best could also exemplify peaceful interdependence at the community level. It is a key stronghold of the South’s most powerful ethnic group, the Dinka. It may contain only less than a quarter of the country’s current production, but it is possibly the largest proven reserve over which the rest of Sudan may claim control.

Abyei timeline

The following is a timeline for the Abyei boundary dispute:

1905
An area inhabited by the Ngok Dinka people is transferred from the administration of Bahr al-Ghazal province to Kordofan province and becomes known as Abyei. What is in dispute is the size of the region.

1956
Sudan gains independence from Anglo-Egyptian rule; first civil war breaks out, the Ngok Dinka align themselves with the southern rebels.

1972
Civil war ends with Addis Ababa Agreement. Abyei is promised a referendum on whether to join the Southern Region.

1983
Second civil war breaks out, in part because the referendum never takes place. Abyei is close to one of the frontlines between north and south.

2002
Peace talks reach a milestone with the signing of the Machakos Protocol in Kenya. This promises the south significant autonomy, a referendum and self-determination but leaves the issue of Abyei unresolved.

2004
An Abyei protocol drafted by US diplomats is signed between the Sudan government and rebel SPLM/A, clearing a significant stumbling block in the wider north-south peace process. It provides for another referendum. Abyei’s border remains undefined.

2005
The Comprehensive Peace Agreement formally ends the second civil war; Abyei Boundaries Commission hears testimony from all stakeholders and issues ruling on the path of the boundary (July). Government in Khartoum rejects the ruling, claiming the ABC overstepped its mandate.

2007
Deadlock over Abyei’s administration and other issues leads the SPLM to temporarily pull out of Government of National Unity (October). This follows a standoff between SPLA and Government forces in Abyei in September. Abyei lacks an effective administration.

2008
Abyei town razed (May) in the worst of several clashes since December 2007. In June an agreement is reached to hand the border dossier over to a specially convened tribunal sitting at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, whose decision will be binding on both parties.

2009
Permanent Court of Arbitration begins hearings in April; ruling scheduled for 22 July. (IRIN)

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