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Iran - Ruling elite faces severe challenges

Global Arab Network - - Adam Turner

Monday, 03 August 2009 00:03

Since Iran's elections of June 12, an important question has arisen: Does the turmoil on the country's streets reflect a wide rift within the ruling religious elite or is it indicative of differences in public opinion?

Whatever the answer, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the ruling religious establishment face grave challenges.

Grand Ayatollah Hussain Ali Montazeri's pointed public comments have provided fresh evidence that a serious rift opened up at the top of Iran's powerful religious hierarchy after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei endorsed the official election results and the harsh crackdown against the opposition.

A leader of the 1979 Islamic revolution who has often feuded with Khamenei and once vied with him for the supreme leader's position, Montazeri accused the government of attacking "the children of the people with astonishing violence" and "attempting a purge, arresting intellectuals and political opponents".

He questioned the legitimacy of the elections and also Khamenei's leadership, and this is the heart of the political battle in Iran. Montazeri's actions are very significant and represent a massive boost for the demonstrators.

The current state of affairs must be very worrying for Ahmadinejad. Whereas the balance of power was in his favour during his first presidential term, this is no longer the case.

It is also likely that forces in the region that considered an alliance with Iran as a cornerstone of their strategies in facing the West will soon think otherwise.

Despite the fact that Ahmadinejad will serve a second term, due to the backing of the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, even before the Constitutional Amendment Council of Iran had its say, he was weakened when Iran's top authority demanded that he dismiss a senior official who he had hand-picked.

Ahmadinejad also came under fire from fellow conservatives and hardliners for appointing Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei as his first vice president.

The president was slow in responding to the orders, which gave rise to speculation about possible disharmony within the conservative elite in Iran.

The appointment of Mashaei angered reformists and conservatives alike.

On another level, Ahmadinejad's supporters no longer need to take to the streets. Instead, protesters are being confronted by security, police, the army and revolutionary guards.

In stark contrast to the forceful confrontation that faced protesters in Iran, protests abroad were received with great sympathy on the part of European governments.

These rallies reflected another Middle Eastern phenomenon, as so many immigrants from these countries live in Europe as a result of the despotic nature of their countries' governments.

More than six weeks have passed since the Iranian elections and the protests have lost some of their force. The number of demonstrations and people taking part in them has also declined. However, they have not died out altogether.

To some extent, the confrontation has moved from the streets to the mosques. The Friday sermon at the Tehran University mosque has become a source of interest for both conservatives and reformists.

There are two sides in this conflict. One is committed to weakening the role of the supreme leader of Iran, while the other backs him.

The first group is headed by Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, former Iranian president, and the current Chairman of the Assembly of Experts (a deliberative body of Mujtahids that is charged with electing, monitoring, and dismissing the supreme leader of Iran) and Chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council of Iran. The second group is led by Khamenei himself.

At first glance, it may look as though Rafsanjani is attempting to lead the reformist movement in Iran. This may indeed be the case as he remains a moderate, despite serving as president.

During his most recent election campaign he was seen as a pragmatic politician who found no fault in re-evaluating policies.

His stand in the latest Iranian crisis reflects his desire to mend divisions within the religious establishment. Rafsanjani has not dwelt on allegations of vote rigging, nor has he claimed that Ahmadinejad's position as president of Iran is illegitimate, as have other defeated presidential candidates.

Rafsanjani has been careful not to anger conservatives. Instead, he has talked about the necessity of regaining the trust of the people and the dangers facing Iran.

In one of his speeches he said that the anger of the people will make any government lose its legitimacy, while the consent of the people is a fundamental condition for leadership.

Rafsanjani has sought a balance between the two, without taking sides with one party or the other. This stand is very cunning, and resembles the role that must be played by the revolution's supreme guide. Rafsanjani has not sought to weaken the role of the revolution's guide, but he has questioned the authority of Khamenei.

The religious establishment in Iran is going through a new type of struggle, not witnessed before. This time, the fight is between the grand symbols of the revolution, and is being played out on the streets of Iranian cities.

Rafsanjani has been the first to toll the bells. Will the struggle lead to the fall of a number of the regime's leaders? Rafsanjani seems to believe that there is worse to come.

Global Arab Network

Dr Mohammad Akef Jamal is an Iraqi writer based in Dubai. Special to Gulf News

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