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Iran Aims for the Stars and Military Strength

Robert Bailey

Friday, 04 June 2010 09:15

Iran has assembled the largest, most diverse ballistic-missile arsenal in the Gulf and Middle East, according to a new analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

While the Islamic Republic insists that its missile development is entirely defensive in nature there is little doubt that its capabilities are increasing rapidly.

A new medium-range, solid-propellant missile, the Sajjil (Baked Clay) constitutes a major leap forward with a potential capability to deliver a 750 kg warhead a distance of 2,200 km.

The Sajjil’s exact purpose is as yet unclear. In a detailed study of the country’s growing ballistic missile capabilities, the IISS notes that Iran is the only country to have developed a missile of such reach without first having developed nuclear weapons.

The stepping up of missile development comes as the US is attempting to co-ordinate sanctions against Tehran with the aim is of obtaining more disclosure from Iran over its nuclear programme and an end to any attempts to translate this to weapons development.

However, Washington’s efforts to secure international consensus for sanctions has been weakened by an agreement announced on May 17 by Brazil’s President Lula da Silva.

This involves Iran shipping 1,200 kg of low-enriched uranium to Turkey in exchange for 120 kg of fuel rods for a Tehran research reactor designed only to produce radioactive isotopes for medical purposes. For non-aligned countries the agreement is seen as a compromise solution. Critics say the move is just a delaying tactic to buy time for further Iranian enrichment.

Some US analysts claim that in the seven months since Tehran rejected the initial fuel export deal proposed by Washington it has processed sufficient additional fuel to give it a “breakout capability.” This supposedly would allow it to proceed quickly to make a nuclear bomb even after depositing 1,200 kg of uranium in Turkey.

Suspicions have been exacerbated by the robust strides Iran is making in development of ballistic missiles. In February 2009, Iran put a satellite into orbit successfully employing a two-stage rocket. These achievements extend Iran’s missile reach beyond the range of existing liquid fuelled missiles already in Iran’s inventory.

The IISS study states that Iran has adequate industries to design and build larger airframes. “It has already demonstrated an ability to build a two-stage missile. In addition, there no apparent technical barriers to prevent Iranian engineers from creating an engine cluster using either (Russian designed) Scud or (North-Korean) No-dong engines.”

Another much more powerful rocket designated the Simorgh (Phoenix) employing a cluster of engines, was exhibited in mock-up form in February this year. The rocket could provide the basis for launching a payload of more than one tonnes into low-earth orbit and eventually be used to put an Iranian astronaut into space.

If configured as a two-stage missile with a 700 kg warhead it could achieve a maximum range of about 7,500 kilometres. Iranian press reports suggest the Simorgh’s maiden flight will take place in less than one year’s time

Western observers point out that such a commercial, space launcher development programme can easily be used to conceal military programmes. Iran already has some 17 different types of ballistic missiles in operation or under development. Their ranges vary between45 kilometres and 2,400 kilometres with payload capacities ranging from 45 kg to 1,100 kg.

For the IISS this demonstrates an Iranian capacity to integrate technologies effectively and to bring industries together to create viable weapons systems.
Recent success in testing locally produced space-launch vehicles and two-stage solid-propellant missiles has heightened concerns, the London-based think-tank says.

In spite of this, the IISS believes that there is no likelihood of any short-term deployment. A three-stage version of the solid-propellant Sajjil, capable of delivering a one-tonne warhead 3,700 kilometres, is said to be at least four to five years away. Iran is not likely either to field a liquid-fuelled missile capable of targeting Western Europe before 2014 or 2015.

Iran’s missiles armed with conventional warheads, will very likely, as well remain too inaccurate to be militarily effective. The projected size of the longer-range missiles from fixed sites, most likely silos, or from an above-ground launch pad would be too vulnerable to pre-emptive attack.

So far there is no evidence that Iran has embarked on development of an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range greater than 5,500 kilometres while it now undoubtedly has the capabilities to do so. But a notional inter-continental ballistic missile is more than a decade away from development, the IISS judges.

There still remains the nuclear question though and missiles in Iran’s inventory are inherently nuclear capable as long as any warheads arming them were sufficiently compact.

Some analysts conclude that it would take Iran five years to move from the first test of a simple nuclear device to the development of a nuclear bomb or warhead able to be fitted onto existing and future Iranian ballistic missiles.

Whatever their ultimate intent it is clear that Iran’s accomplishments over the past five to seven years are impressive. The Islamic Republic has shown a capacity to modify existing missiles, to produce indigenously a large percentage of the necessary components to go into a missile including the airframe and propellant tanks and create new systems.
These capabilities demonstrate unambiguously that Iran has created and applied a disciplined, structured engineering and programme-management process to its missile and space launcher development programmes.

The IISS study suggests that Iran’s growing and increasingly capable engineering and management infrastructure may, over the long-term, be the greatest strategic legacy to emerge from its development of ballistic missiles.

Global Arab Network

Robert Bailey is Global Arab Network consulting editor and writer specialising in the Middle East.

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