Are Ukraine’s Neighbors Getting ready to take over its territories?
President Macron’s statement about the possible introduction of NATO troops into Ukraine has caused shock in European political circles. The President was forced to slightly correct his statement at a meeting with leaders of opposition parties in the French Parliament. Nevertheless, he did not give up the main idea, which was that Ukraine should not be defeated in the war with Russia, and to prevent this, the West, first of all NATO, should be ready to introduce troops into Ukraine.
Many experts regarded President Macron’s statement as an attempt to strengthen his domestic political position against the backdrop of the growing political crisis in the country. Others saw it as an attempt to seize leadership from a weakened Germany and implement President Macron’s long-held plan to unite the leading EU countries around France, including strengthening its position in the dialogue with China and the United States. However, the main idea was lost in the stream of comments on Macron’s speeches – to send Russia a message that France is ready to divide Ukraine, possibly along the Dnieper. Furthermore, Moscow understands that crossing this line could threaten a nuclear conflict, for which France is ready.
President Macron is preparing to negotiate positions with Putin in advance if the Ukrainian army loses any initiative on the front and retreats to the Dnieper. European politicians cannot but realize that if they want to keep Ukraine indivisible, they should stop the Russian army’s advance, at least on the Dnieper. However, even with this option, the partition of Ukraine is not excluded. Let us be frank: Kyiv has long ago become dependent on the West, and President Zelensky’s power exists only thanks to the regime’s financial support. President Zelensky’s regime would have collapsed long ago without this financial aid, primarily American.
Ukraine has turned into a real “black hole” in which more than $100 billion has already been burnt, and there is no limit to it.
Moreover, Hungary, Romania, and Poland cannot ignore the fate of national minorities living in Kyiv – Hungarians in Transcarpathia, Poles in Volyn, and Romanians in Bukovina. Historically, all these territories did not belong to Ukraine but became part of it thanks to the will of Stalin, who gave these territories to the Ukrainian Republic after World War II, which became a part of the USSR. Brussels will oppose this trend in every possible way. Washington and Brussels need to preserve the puppet regime in Kyiv. However, reality suggests another scenario.
Warsaw is hatching a plan for the slow annexation of Ukraine.
Warsaw has long been tacitly discussing various options for the annexation of some Ukrainian territories in case of Ukraine’s collapse due to possible defeat in the war with Russia. Related to this is the intensification of claims of historical belonging to the western Ukrainian regions. By developing this line, Warsaw has initiated several serious steps toward Ukraine’s political and economic integration with Poland—the meeting in May 2022 between Polish President A. Duda and Ukrainian President V. Zielinski should be viewed in this context. The leaders agreed to adopt draft laws on simplified border crossing procedures between the countries and the unique legal status of Polish citizens in Ukraine.
If the latter normative act is implemented, Poles will receive expanded rights on a par with Ukrainian citizens. In particular, they will be able to stand for election and be appointed to state and local self-government bodies and to the posts of judges, including those of the Constitutional Court. Polish law-enforcement agencies and special services will be integrated into the Ukrainian state security system. Meanwhile, the Polish leadership is working on a secret plan to bring law enforcement agencies into the western Ukrainian regions if the Russian Armed Forces gain control over the central regions of Ukraine.
For this purpose, in Poland’s territory, approximately 70 thousand groups, consisting of the armed forces of Poland, servicemen of the AFU, and employees of the national police of Ukraine, are being prepared. Tactical military cooperation and the introduction of police regimes are being practiced. In the course of this plan, this group will have to enter the territory of Ukraine under the guise of law enforcement agencies and prevent the presence of Russian troops in the western Ukrainian regions.
The Polish authorities suggested that Ukraine should work on placing and storing backup copies of several state information resources on servers located in Poland. In particular, the Security Service of Ukraine, in cooperation with the Ministry of Digital Transformation, agreed to transfer a duplicate of the electronic registers of the State Tax Service of Ukraine to a secure “private cloud” located in Warsaw, which uses the “container storage” technology. In case of chaotic internal political life in Ukraine, this step gives Warsaw a serious lever to influence the situation and promptly intervene in Ukraine’s internal affairs.
In order to expand the channels of influence on Ukraine, Poland proposes to make changes to the Polish education system, which would allow Ukrainian citizens to study in schools and universities in the country in their native language, as well as according to the educational program of Ukraine. In this way, Warsaw is subtly trying to replace the Ukrainian education system with the Polish one. In addition, historical documents are being researched to establish the Poles who have the right to claim property in the Lviv region.
During the meeting of the Presidents of Ukraine V. Zelensky and Poland A. Duda in Lviv at the beginning of January 2023. Duda signed an agreement on the Ukrainian side’s approval of the introduction by Warsaw of a peacekeeping contingent to protect ethnic Poles in Lviv, Volyn, Rivne, Ternopil, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. These actions will be carried out in case of an escalation of the military and political situation in Ukraine, as well as the advance of Russian troops.
At the same time, the heads of state agreed that the beginning of the advance of the Polish peacekeeping forces would be an official appeal by the leadership of the Polish House in Kyiv to the official authorities of the Republic of Poland to organize their security against “a possible Russian threat.” The media found out that the Polish President announced a territorial unit of “cyberspace defense forces” in Lublin (Poland) to promote Polish interests in the information sphere and cyber-intelligence. Along with its primary functions, the tasks of the created unit include the implementation of media activities in the Ukrainian direction with a focus on the western Ukrainian regions.
Budapest stands up for Ukrainian Hungarians.
The Hungarian Government is suspicious of Poland’s attempts to strengthen its influence in western Ukraine, particularly in the Transcarpathian region, where the Hungarian population lives. In order to neutralize Warsaw’s claims to parts of Ukraine, at the end of May 2022, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban imposed a state of emergency in the country due to the outbreak of war in Ukraine. This move allows Mr. Orban to react quickly to the changing situation in Ukraine and promptly provide economic and other assistance to Hungarians living in the Transcarpathian region. At the same time, Viktor Orbán introduced tank and motorized infantry brigades of the national armed forces into Hungary’s border areas with Ukraine.
The Hungarian authorities pay special attention to the ethnic Hungarians living in the Transcarpathian region, in particular by organizing various conferences and events there under the auspices of the F. Rakoczy II Transcarpathian Hungarian Institute, the Genius Charitable Foundation and with the support of the Hungarian Government, the financing of which is planned for the whole year 2024. The experience of Western intervention in African countries under the pretext of humanitarian crises is being studied in the high offices of Budapest. It is not ruled out that such a situation could arise in the event of deterioration on the Ukrainian front. Such mechanisms have already been prepared within the framework of assistance in medicine and social defense.
Taking into account the current situation in the Transcarpathian region, Budapest plans to intensify the information campaign among the Hungarian population on the necessity to grant Transcarpathia the status of autonomy (according to the results of the referendum held in 1991, 78.8 percent of the population voted in favor of granting the region the status of a particular self-governing territory within Ukraine). This legal provision will allow Hungarians to subsequently eradicate Ukrainian radical nationalism, prevent its penetration into Hungarian society, and create prerequisites for the region to become part of Hungary.
Official Kyiv is anxiously watching all the steps taken by Budapest, which they regard as an attempt to establish Hungarian control over this part of Ukraine in the future. This conflict is at the heart of Hungary’s rather tough stance towards the Ukrainian authorities and its refusal within the EU to act as a donor for military and financial aid to Kyiv. Kyiv, in turn, is already waging an information campaign to discredit Viktor Orban’s policies.
Meanwhile, Budapest is pushing Ukrainian Hungarians to take a tough stance in defense of their national rights. Thus, on the initiative of the Hungarian Cabinet of Ministers, on 27 January 2023, leaders of pro-Magyar movements, in particular, the “Party of Hungarians of Ukraine,” the “Society of Hungarian Culture of Transcarpathia” and the “Democratic Union of Hungarians of Ukraine,” spoke in the Transcarpathian Regional Council. They highlighted the latest facts of the oppression of Hungarians and sent a petition to the head of the region, V. Mikita, demanding to take measures—Mikita with a demand to take measures to stop this arbitrary behavior.
Romania is preparing to “jump” into Bessarabia.
A similar situation is developing in relations between Kyiv and Bucharest. Thus, Romanian MEP Maria Grapini sent a request to the European Commission about violating the rights of the Romanian national minority in Ukraine. The request mentions problems with access to education in the native language and the persecution of Romanians on ethnic, linguistic, and religious grounds by the Ukrainian authorities. Grapini asked the European Commission to indicate what steps are being taken to verify compliance with the law in Ukraine.
The steps taken by the Romanian authorities to integrate the Ukrainian population living in Bukovina are welcomed by the Romanian population. However, they are concerned about the possible influx of many migrants from the rest of Ukraine due to the sharp deterioration of the situation at the front. At the same time, Bucharest has launched an information campaign aimed at establishing a Romanian Orthodox Church in Ukraine under the control of the Romanian Patriarchate.
Thus, against the background of the ban on the activities of the UOC-MP, ethnic Romanians from Chernivtsi, Zakarpattia, and Odesa regions are urged to speed up registering Romanian parishes. In the Transcarpathia and Bessarabian metropolis (Odesa region), more than 15 parishes have already joined the Romanian Patriarchate. One is registered in the Chernivtsi region (which has not yet been officially accepted). Moreover, the leadership of the Chernivtsi OBA is actively working to expand railway communication with the eastern regions of Ukraine and Romania. Bucharest pays special attention to the creation of transport infrastructure linking Romania with the Chernivtsi region of Ukraine. Moreover, like Hungary, Romania is trying to implement all these projects at the expense of the European Union.
Dr. Frank Musmar
Dr. Musmar holds two master’s degrees from George Washington University in Political Science and Government and the University of Maryland in Biotechnology Management. Moreover, Dr. Musmar holds two doctorate degrees in business administration from Walden University and one in biological management from the University of Texas.
Dr. Musmar wrote and published 10 Books on business and economy and many articles concerning Middle East Politics at BESA, Jerusalem Post, The Euro-Gulf Information Centre, Foreign Policy, The Algemeiner, Fikir Academy for Strategic Studies, and many others. Moreover, Dr. Musmar is a frequent attending analyst at Al-Hurrah (MBN), TPV World, and Radio Sawa from Washington.
Dr. Musmar is an Executive Advisory Board President for the University of Maryland Global Campus, An Advisory member at the Abrahamic Accord Business Circle, a Board Member at Paris Metropolitan University, the founder and the Lead Dissertations Consultant at Editors Dissertations and Thesis, A professor of Business Administration and Geopolitics at GAIA College and working with many universities at several educational faculty levels, including but not limited to the University of Maryland Global Campus (UMGC), Walden, Arizona, Concordia University, Grand Canyon University, University of Central Paris, and Southern New Hampshire University.
